US aims to steer Venezuela after capturing Maduro
The 13-year presidency of Nicolás Maduro (2013-2026) came to a dramatic end on 3 January when US special forces seized the Venezuelan leader and his wife against a backdrop of airstrikes in Caracas and whisked them away to face drugs and weapons charges in a New York courtroom. Few Venezuelans will miss Maduro, who after a narrow victory in the 2013 election clung to power through ever more repressive and dictatorial means. It remains unclear, however, whether his fall will deliver the return of democracy. For now, the country is being ruled on an interim basis by Maduro’s former vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, who has been warned by Washington to comply with US demands or face further military action.
In a lightning raid on 3 January, special forces from the US Delta Force counter-terrorism unit descended on the Fuerte Tiuna military base in Caracas, where Maduro was staying with his wife Cilia Flores. Explosions rocked the capital, with the US striking Fuerte Tiuna and two other military bases – La Carlota and Antenas El Volcán – as well as the La Guaira port to the north of the city, and the Higuerote airport in Miranda state. Maduro and Flores were then loaded onto a helicopter and taken to the USS Iwo Jima assault ship in the Caribbean before being transported to New York for their indictment.
Maduro faces four charges – narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation conspiracy, possession of machine guns and destructive devices, and conspiracy to possess machine guns and destructive devices. Flores faces the same charges, which relate partially to her alleged role as a broker between a drug trafficker and government officials.
Details on the number of casualties remained vague at the time of writing on 5 January, although it seemed that civilians had been caught up in the violence. The New York Times reported on 3 January that an apartment block had been struck, killing residents including an 80-year-old woman, and cited a senior Venezuelan official as saying that over 40 people had been killed, although it was unclear whether these were civilians or military. Venezuela’s foreign ministry announced that 32 “Cuban combatants” had been killed – a reference to the agents provided by Cuba to provide counter-intelligence services and to act as Maduro’s personal bodyguards.
By contrast, no US forces were killed in the raid, codenamed ‘Operation Absolute Resolve’, President Donald Trump announced at a press conference on 3 January. The attack, he declared, was “an assault like people have not seen since World War Two”. Yet whilst the raid itself came without warning, the warning signs had been flashing for Maduro for over three months.
The US push against Maduro began in September last year with a massive naval build-up in the Caribbean and began to gather serious momentum in the run-up to Christmas. Ostensibly assembled to combat drug trafficking, the US military deployment was from the outset regarded by the Venezuelan government as an existential threat. For months, the White House made little attempt to distinguish between the twin goals of counter-narcotics and regime change in Caracas, declaring that Maduro was the leader of the Cártel de los Soles and offering a US$50m reward for information leading to his arrest [SSR-25-10].
Maduro was apparently offered a way out by Trump during a 21 November phone call, which he reportedly rejected, instead pitching an offer to stand down on his own terms. Various media outlets reported that Trump gave Maduro a week-long deadline to leave Venezuela, with the Miami Herald reporting that Trump told him: “You can save yourself and those closest to you, but you must leave the country now”. Maduro rejected the offer of exile in an allied country, in which his options would realistically have been reduced to a handful of autocratic states such as Russia, Cuba, and Iran.
Instead, whilst projecting a jovial appearance at rallies where he regularly sang anti-war songs, in private Maduro reportedly grew increasingly concerned for his safety. In the weeks prior to his arrest, The New York Times cited sources close to Maduro as saying that he did not feel safe sleeping in the presidential palace and was living across several military installations. The precision of the US raid suggests that insider information may have contributed towards his capture, with Trump revealing that US troops carried a blowtorch capable of cutting through steel doors that Maduro might have tried to hide behind.
What next for Venezuela’s opposition and oil?
The outlook for Venezuela is now deeply uncertain. Whilst the reaction was jubilant among some of the country’s huge diaspora, there were few public celebrations to be seen within Venezuela, despite Maduro widely being viewed as a repressive autocrat who lost the 2024 election by a wide margin. As well as widespread shock at the US incursion, the mood was no doubt dampened by the fact that the country remains – for now, at least – under the nominal control of the Chavista movement that has governed the country for 27 years under Maduro and his late predecessor Hugo Chávez (1999-2013).
Rodríguez, who served as Maduro’s vice president since 2018 and as oil minister since 2024, had reportedly made two secret approaches to the US since April 2025 offering to act as president if Maduro were removed from power [SSR-24-11]. Her offer, according to press reports, was to head a government that is more palatable to Washington than the one headed by Maduro, without making fundamental changes to the country’s power structure in which the Chavistas wield near-total control.
It is unclear whether the US intends to pressure Rodríguez to implement democratic reforms or call elections in the near future. However, in his 3 January remarks, Trump seemed to pour cold water on the idea of the opposition taking power. Referring to opposition leader María Corina Machado, Trump said “it would be very tough for her to be the leader,” claiming that “she doesn’t have the support within or the respect within the country,” despite strong evidence to the contrary [SSR-24-09]. It would however be accurate to say that Machado and other opposition heavyweights, such as 2024 presidential candidate Edmundo González, lack support in the military – a crucial powerbroker which might accept Rodríguez as president but would balk at the prospect of a democratic government investigating systematic human rights abuses committed under Maduro.
Trump, however, seemed to favour a Rodríguez presidency for other purposes. She has, he said, offered “to do what we think is necessary,” adding that “she doesn’t really have a choice” if she wants to avoid “a second and much larger attack”. A key aspect of this cooperation, Trump suggested, would regard Venezuela’s massive oil reserves. “We need total access – we need access to the oil and other things in their country,” Trump said on 4 January. The previous day, he had said that “we’re going to be taking a tremendous amount of wealth out of the ground”. Speaking alongside Trump, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that a key goal for the US would be to establish “certain guarantees and conditions” to drive investment in the oil sector.
Rodríguez attempts balancing act
In a televised address on 3 January, President Rodríguez said that “what is being done to Venezuela is an atrocity that violates international law,” adding that “there is only one president in Venezuela and his name is Nicolás Maduro”. The following day, however, she struck a more conciliatory tone, saying that “we invite the US government to collaborate with us on an agenda of cooperation”.