Bolivia set for change as conservatives triumph

The first round of Bolivia’s presidential election on 17 August saw a total collapse for the ruling left-wing Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS), with its candidate Eduardo del Castillo finishing in sixth place with just 3.17% of the vote, narrowly surpassing the 3% cut-off below which a party loses its legal status. The two candidates who will progress to the second round on 19 October are Rodrigo Paz, representing the centre-right Partido Demócrata Cristiano (PDC), who received 32.06% of the vote, and former president Jorge Quiroga (2001-2002), representing the right-wing Libre party, on 26.70%. Whichever candidate ultimately wins, they will be the first Bolivian president not from the left to be elected since Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada (1993-1997, 2002-2003).

Paz is the son of former president Jaime Paz Zamora (1989-1993), and his strong performance was a surprise given that a week before the election he was polling at less than 10%. He undeniably benefitted from the fragmentation of the left into three separate camps, with mutual hostility between factions of the MAS loyal to outgoing President Luis Arce and his protégé Del Castillo, former president Evo Morales (2006-2019), and senate president Andrónico Rodríguez, who finished fourth with 8.51% of the vote. Morales, who was constitutionally barred, despite his best efforts, from seeking a fourth term in office, had called upon his supporters to spoil their ballots rather than backing either Del Castillo or Rodríguez, resulting in 22.37% of votes in the election being declared void.

Amidst this turmoil, Paz may have been seen as the best option by many soft-left voters disillusioned by the infighting in the MAS and the Arce administration’s inability to handle the country’s serious economic problems. Although Paz’s party, the PDC, is on the centre-right, and he served as a senator for the main opposition coalition Comunidad Ciudadana (CC) in the last congress, he sought to portray himself as a centrist. His campaign slogan was “capitalism for everyone” as he called for a social market approach to fixing the economy.

Despite its divisions, the left remains a colossal force in Bolivian politics when it is united, and Paz may have also benefitted from his association with the radical left-wing Movimiento de Izquierda Revolucionaria (MIR), founded by his father in 1971. He is an experienced politician, having held political office continuously since he started his congressional career as a deputy of the MIR for Tarija department in 2002. Following the MIR’s collapse in 2006 he moved on to serve on as president of Tarija city’s municipal council from 2010-2015 before being elected mayor of Tarija in 2015 with around 55% of the vote. He resigned from the role in 2020 to win a senate seat as part of the centre-right CC coalition led by former president Carlos Mesa (2003-2005). At a time where few Bolivians can ignore the scale of the economic problems facing the country, Paz has been able to present himself as an experienced pair of hands, as well as a moderate candidate sitting somewhere in the middle of a very polarised political system.

Paz has also benefitted from a wise choice of running mate: former police captain Edman Lara, who has become famous for using social media to denounce corruption, particularly in the police force. Support for Paz was strongest in the western and highland areas of the country, which for the last twenty years have been a stronghold of the MAS.

Quiroga, Paz’s opponent in the October second round, ran on a more straightforwardly right-wing platform, advocating for privatisations and neoliberal adjustments in order to address the economic crisis. Quiroga briefly served as president from 2001-2002 having been vice-president under Hugo Banzer (1997-2001), who previously ruled as military dictator from 1971-1978. He lost to Morales in the 2005 election. During the unpopular interim government of Jeanine Áñez (2019-2020), which followed the disputed 2019 elections that ended with Morales going into exile, Quiroga served for a brief period as Bolivia’s ‘international delegate to denounce human rights violations’ – a role that Áñez’s critics claim was created purely to discredit Morales. His support in the first round was largely concentrated in the east of the country and among voters who have never supported the MAS.

In third place was business magnate Samuel Doria Medina, who polls had predicted would face Quiroga in the second round instead of Paz. He received 19.69% of the vote, winning in two departments (Beni and Tarija). In a positive move for Bolivia’s strained democratic process, Doria swiftly conceded defeat to Paz and Quiroga and praised a transparent and fair contest, as did Arce and Del Castillo. The European Union’s electoral observation mission also praised the elections for being well-run and taking place in a peaceful and civic atmosphere. Doria has pledged his support to Paz in the second round and encouraged his supporters to follow suit.

Whoever wins in October has a difficult job ahead of them. Part of the reason for the collapse of the MAS is that Bolivian voters are citing economic concerns as being of greater concern than political issues. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has been issuing increasingly stern warnings about the need to phase out fuel subsidies, increase tax revenue, improve spending efficiency, and reduce a fiscal deficit that has seen public debt increase to 95% of GDP. Bolivia’s credit rating has been progressively lowered by ratings agencies, while the central bank’s reserves of hard currency are alarmingly low. Citizens are seeing widespread fuel shortages, while shortages of US dollars have impacted the cost and availability of imported products. As Bolivia’s pegged exchange rate comes under increasing strain, a black-market dollar rate has re-emerged in a throwback to the hyperinflationary 1980s.

Although Arce has tried to shift the blame for these problems onto his opponents in congress, his government stands accused by both the right-wing opposition and the MAS faction loyal to Morales of squandering the wealth generated by the gas boom of the 2000s and early 2010s. Compounding this criticism, the Arce administration has not given any indication that it has a plan to get the country out of its worsening crisis. Both Paz and Quiroga would be likely to adopt some of the recommendations made by the IMF, including the removal of the fuel subsidies that cost over US$2bn per year.

The winner should, at least initially, be able to dominate congress, which is set to be almost entirely controlled by conservative parties. Paz’s PDC will hold 47 of the 130 seats in the chamber of deputies and 16 of 36 seats in the senate, while Quiroga’s Libre will have 39 seats in the lower chamber and 12 in the senate. The collapse of the MAS, which will have just two seats in the lower chamber and none at all in the senate, may entail a cooperative legislature for the new president. At the same time, however, the high number of voters who heeded Morales’ call to spoil their ballots could herald an uptick in social unrest, with the former president’s followers clearly feeling like they have lost their stake in the democratic process.