Uribe verdict roils Colombia ahead of 2026 elections
The guilty verdict that was passed upon Colombia’s former president Álvaro Uribe (2002-2010) on 28 July was one of the most anticipated in the country’s recent history, and has been met with drastically differing responses on the left and right. Conservatives, particularly those affiliated with Uribe’s right-wing Centro Democrático (CD), slammed the witness tampering and bribery convictions as a politicised move by a judiciary that they claim is acting according the wishes of Attorney General Luz Adriana Camargo – an appointee of left-wing President Gustavo Petro, whose animosity towards Uribe dates back decades. On the other hand, Uribe’s critics say that justice has finally been served regarding his alleged collaboration with right-wing paramilitary groups during the internal conflict.
Uribe is the de-facto leader of the Colombian right. He is lionised in the conservative movement for his forceful campaign against the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (Farc) guerrilla group, which turned the tide on the insurgency and pushed the group into successful peace talks with the government of his successor, Juan Manuel Santos (2010-2018). Uribe’s hard line against the Farc is held up by his supporters as the model to follow amid the failings of the current government’s negotiation efforts. On the other hand, Uribe is reviled by many on the left for the human rights abuses that were widespread during the security crackdown, particularly the ‘false positive’ atrocities, in which over 6,000 civilians were murdered and framed as felled guerrillas, as well as the collusion that took place between the security forces and paramilitary groups.
Uribe’s conviction for witness tampering and bribery was only indirectly related to the ‘para-politics’ scandal that has dogged him for 20 years. However, his alleged connections to paramilitary groups were the inescapable backdrop to the trial. Communications between the Autodefensas Unidas de Colombia (AUC) paramilitary organisation and members of the Uribe government and allied members of congress were first revealed in 2005, when authorities seized a laptop belonging to a leading AUC commander, Rodrigo Tovar Pupo (‘Jorge 40’).
Then, in 2012, Uribe himself was publicly accused of colluding with the AUC when Senator Iván Cepeda, then a deputy, claimed to possess witness testimony directly linking Uribe to paramilitary fighters. Cepeda said that an AUC unit, the Bloque Metro, was formed on the Guacharacas farm that is owned by the Uribe family in Antioquia department. Uribe responded by suing Cepeda for defamation, although after reaching the supreme court the case backfired badly on Uribe in 2018. The court dismissed Uribe’s lawsuit against Cepeda and instead ordered an investigation into possible witness tampering by Uribe, stating that its own investigation had uncovered efforts to intimidate or bribe imprisoned paramilitary fighters to stop them from testifying in the case.
The fact that the case then took a further seven years to produce a verdict underscores the way it has been treated differently under right-wing and left-wing governments. During the presidency of Iván Duque (2018-2022), a protégé of Uribe, there were repeated efforts by the attorney general’s office to derail the investigation. Duque’s pick for attorney general, Francisco Barbosa (2020-2024), tried on three separate occasions to archive the investigation, but was blocked each time by the courts. Although Barbosa was unable to fully close the case, it did not progress during his four years as chief prosecutor.
The investigation sprang back into life in 2024 when Barbosa was replaced by Camargo, who was appointed from a shortlist drawn up by President Petro. In April that year, only a month after Camargo took office, Uribe was called to trial – a rapid acceleration that has been variously interpreted as proof that Barbosa was obstructing the case, or as a sign that Uribe is being hounded with improper enthusiasm under the new leadership at the attorney general’s office. As she passed her guilty verdict against the former president, Judge Sandra Heredia alluded to the polarised perceptions of the trial. “The sentence that is about to be announced does not have any political orientation, nor is it charged with sympathy or antipathy…the law cannot tremble when faced with noise and justice does not kneel to power…it does not see names, roles, or status,” she said.
This view was not shared by Uribe’s allies at home and abroad. Unsurprisingly, the verdict was slammed by the US, where he counts several influential allies in President Donald Trump’s administration. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio responded to the verdict by saying that “Uribe’s only crime has been to tirelessly fight and defend his homeland,” adding that “the weaponisation of Colombia’s judicial branch by radical judges has now set a worrisome precedent”. Expressions of disappointment also came in from the political opposition in Venezuela, which counts Uribe as a staunch ally due to his years of fierce opposition to the governments of President Nicolás Maduro and his predecessor, the late Hugo Chávez (1999-2013).
Petro, meanwhile, has been uncharacteristically quiet regarding the verdict, given that he has long regarded Uribe as his main political nemesis. In one of his few public references since Uribe was found guilty, Petro said that the former president brought his legal troubles upon himself with the defamation case against Cepeda, but made no reference to the wider paramilitary context.
In any case, Uribe looks set to face few immediate consequences from the guilty verdict. Heredia sentenced him to 12 years’ house arrest on 1 August, although he was promptly released less than three weeks later when the superior district court of Bogotá ruled that he should remain at liberty pending the outcome of his appeal. Given that Uribe’s prosecution has already dragged on for seven years, this could entail a lengthy reprieve.
In a sign of how he could now go on to influence next year’s general elections, Uribe celebrated his release with an immediate rally in Medellín, the capital of his political stronghold of Antioquia. He repeated his calls for a “broad coalition” against the ruling Pacto Histórico coalition, accusing it of “threatening the private sector” and allowing the country to become overrun by drug trafficking. “Recovering the freedom of Colombians isn’t about being right-wing, left-wing, or centrist, it’s about recovering a democratic principle,” he said.
Although Uribe, like Petro, is constitutionally barred from seeking another term in office, he could play an influential role as kingmaker among the conservative movement. There are currently five hopefuls seeking the candidacy of Uribe’s CD party – senators María Fernanda Cabal, Paola Holguín, Andrés Guerra, and Paloma Valencia, and Miguel Uribe Londoño, the father of the assassinated senator and presidential pre-candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay (no relation to Álvaro Uribe) [SSR-25-07]. The decision of Uribe Londoño to take the place of his slain son has the potential to significantly shake up the presidential election, the first round of which will be held in March. Uribe Turbay’s assassination caused global repudiation and an outpouring of sympathy for his family, and made insecurity the central issue going into the election.
Cepeda’s presidential run
With conservatives buoyed by the release of Uribe, one of the main contenders for the candidacy of the ruling Pacto Histórico in next year’s presidential election is Senator Iván Cepeda, whose years-long legal battle with Uribe resulted in the former president’s conviction. Cepeda threw his hat in the ring on 22 August and he quickly drew expressions of support from victims’ associations. As right-wingers highlight the failings of the government’s peace strategy, which has focused on negotiations with armed groups, Cepeda has an emotive counterargument to those nostalgic for Uribe’s hardline polices, given that his father was murdered by the AUC paramilitary group with which Uribe is accused of colluding.